In a surprising turn of events for Texas politics, Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn by approximately 28 percentage points in the Republican Senate primary runoff. Paxton garnered roughly 64 percent of the votes, while Cornyn managed to secure only 36 percent. This marks a historic moment as Paxton is the first challenger to unseat a Republican senator in Texas during his own party’s primary since at least 1970, effectively ending Cornyn’s 24-year Senate career.
The primary race was notable not only for its outcome but also for its unprecedented financial stakes. It became the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history, with combined spending approaching $130 million. Despite pro-Cornyn groups outspending pro-Paxton forces by nearly nine to one, the late endorsement from former President Donald Trump just one week before the election proved pivotal in swaying voters towards Paxton.
Paxton’s journey to this victory has not been without controversy. He was previously indicted on felony securities fraud charges, which were later dropped. Additionally, he faced impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House on allegations including bribery and abuse of office, but was acquitted by the state Senate in 2023.
Looking ahead, Paxton will face Democratic state Representative James Talarico in the November general election. Following the primary results, a nonpartisan elections forecaster promptly shifted the race’s rating from ‘Likely Republican’ to ‘Lean Republican,’ indicating a growing sense of optimism among Democrats about potentially flipping the seat.
The outcome of this primary runoff not only reshapes the Republican landscape in Texas but also adds an intriguing dynamic to the upcoming general election, as both parties prepare for a competitive battle in a state that has been a Republican stronghold for decades.
