WASHINGTON — House Republicans are entering triage mode four weeks from Election Day, with a growing number privately fearing their chances of holding the majority are vanishing as President Donald Trump approval ratings sink even on traditionally red turf.
Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-214 seat advantage. An analysis of both parties campaign targets, ad reservations and outside spending by Trump-aligned super PACs finds more than 90 districts where resources are being committed in the closing weeks. Cook Political Report currently lists 43 districts as competitive, including 22 classified as toss-ups.
Heading into the final electoral sprint, there are 60 districts that are listed as priorities of both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee along with Trump-aligned groups. On average those districts voted for Trump by an 8% margin in 2024, highlighting how deep into conservative areas competitive races have moved.
GOP members and aides express growing anxiety about protecting parts of the country that have not elected Democrats to the House in decades — seats Trump won by double digits that are suddenly in play. Trump-linked groups are spending in seats once considered a reach for Democrats, including Colorado’s 5th District, Kentucky’s 6th District and Montana’s 1st District.
Republicans are discussing pulling money from once-competitive races they see as too difficult to win, including Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa, Rep. Tom Kean in New Jersey and an open seat in Nebraska, according to people familiar with the talks. Speaker Mike Johnson remains convinced he can hang onto the House and is not taking seats off his board.
National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Will Kiley said House Republicans are on offense and outspending Democrats in the final stretch in every race. Many Republicans say the souring national environment — fueled by soaring diesel prices, stubborn inflation and hardening opposition to the Iran war — is largely out of their control this late, and their goal is to limit Democrats to the slimmest majority possible.
